The greater Grand Rapids industrial economy continues its slow
growth, according to the results of a monthly survey compiled by Brian
G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College
of Business at Grand Valley State University.
The survey results are based on data collected in the last two
weeks of November. The survey’s index of business improvement, called
new orders, was virtually unchanged at +15. In a similar move, the
production index eased to +18 from +19. The index of purchases rose
modestly to +16, up from +9. The employment index remained unchanged
at +21.
Long said it is clear the greater Grand Rapids economy is still
growing, but the pace has slowed from previous months. “We will
probably end the year with slow growth, and should expect the slow
pace to continue well into 2011,” said Long. “Much of the gloom and
doom has subsided, but the pace of the recovery remains painfully slow.”
Long said new orders are up considerably for many office
furniture firms and that automotive parts suppliers are still doing
well. He said the stabilization of auto sales continues to help.
Long added that the recovery will be slower than any recession
in the past 60 years because of four factors: a glut of unsold housing
on the market, low consumer spending, tight lending policies of banks,
and low business and consumer confidence.
The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey
of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the
greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are
purchasing managers from the region’s major industrial manufacturers,
distributors, and industrial service organizations. It is patterned
after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply
Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight
factors as “same,” “up” or “down.” An expanded version of this report
and details of the methodology used to compile it are available at www.gvsu.edu/scblogistics.
DOWNLOADABLE AUDIO
* Brian Long says the office furniture industry has finally turned a corner (audio).
* Long says the recovery is slow because cosumer and business confidence is low (audio).
* Long says the housing market continues to struggle (audio).
* Long says Christmas holiday spending is expected to be strong (audio).
