According to the monthly survey, the index of new orders declined to -24, down from -21 in September. While still negative, the production index was -14, a little better than September's -24. The purchasing index sank to -35, down from -28. The employment index slid to -26 from -21.
“We are now in the seventh month of the downtrend for this report,” Long said. “Unfortunately, the statistics continue to weaken, and there is no end in sight.”
Long noted that the national economy has met the official definition of a recession. “Unlike the 2001 recession which was largely the fault of the dot com bust, the causes of this recession are far more complex,” Long said. “Hence, these problems will take much longer to correct themselves — or to be corrected.”
Looking at individual industries, Long said the news is bad across the board, with declines in the office furniture, auto, industrial distribution, capital equipment and aerospace industries.
Long said President-Elect Barack Obama will face a tough task. “We should not expect any miracles,” Long said. “Indeed, Jimmy Carter noted after his term in office that one of the most frustrating part of his presidency was that the executive branch of government really has very little control over the economy. Except for the proper administration bail-out package that has already been passed, there is really little that our government, the Chinese government, and the European governments can do except wait for the markets to work their way through the problems.”
The Greater Grand Rapids Association of Purchasing Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions includes 45 purchasing managers in the Greater Grand Rapids and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are purchasing managers from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors, and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after nationwide survey conduced by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as "same," "up” or “down.” An expanded version of this report and details of the methodology used to compile it are available at www.gvsu.edu/scblogistics. Call Brian J. Bowe at (616) 331-2221 or e-mail [email protected] to arrange interviews with Long.
AUDIO CLIPS
- Long says it's logical to compare now with the last recession in
2001, but this recession is different because it is worldwide in
scope (audio
clip)
- Long says the trends of this recession are different than others
-- the pattern is straight down instead of up and down (audio
clip)
- Long says there is some good news in all of this as we make
comparisons -- the numbers still aren't as bad as other times
throughout history (audio
clip)
- Long says President-Elect Barack Obama will have a tough time making progress because the Federal Reserve has more control over the economy (audio clip)
