According to the data collected in the month of November, the index of new orders declined to -32, down from -24. In a similar move, the production index fell to -30, down from -14. The index of purchases sank to -40, down from -35. The index of employment turned in its weakest performance in the 20-year history of the survey, falling to -43, down from -26.
“The bad news is that we are in for a rough ride. The worse news is that we don't know how long or how rough the ride is going to last,” Long said.
Long said that, when looking at individual industries, the office furniture, auto and capital equipment industries continue to fall, and the only industries that are still holding up are those relating to defense, aerospace, or mining equipment. “Unfortunately, even these firms will not hold up for long. The shock wave has probably just not reached them yet,” he said.
It seems that the news is grim — and is likely to stay that way for some time. “The question will be raised for months — where and when do we reach the bottom? Unfortunately, there are so many negative economic things happening at once that it is difficult to aggregate an honest assessment,” Long said.
The Greater Grand Rapids Association of Purchasing Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the Greater Grand Rapids and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are purchasing managers from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors, and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conduced by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.” An expanded version of this report and details of the methodology used to compile it are available at www.gvsu.edu/scblogistics.
Call Brian J. Bowe at (616) 331-2221 or e-mail [email protected] to arrange interviews with Long. NOTE TO RADIO: downloadable audio bites are available below:
AUDIO CLIPS:
- Long says experts are having a hard time predicting when the economy will really hit rock bottom (audio clip)
- He says we have to work through excesses on an industrial level before we see a turnaround (audio clip)
- Long says while some industries are still holding up, they too will eventually experience a downturn (audio clip).
- He says while a bailout for the automakers may not make sense to taxpayers, we in Michigan have to support the bailout no matter what! He said if the Big Three fail it would be a total disaster for Michigan. (audio clip)
