Kaitlyn Ratkowiak

Residential Foreclosures in Kent County from a Community Perspective

The ownership, disposition, quality, availability, and affordability of housing in a community is intricately connected to the economic and social well being of that community and its residents.  Given the current crisis in foreclosures and subprime lending in a large percentage of housing markets across the U.S., the potential ripple effects of this issue have become a regular staple for reporting on the evening news.  Unfortunately, these discussions, in particular in Kent County, provide little in the way of knowledge that can help local policy makers and public and nonprofit organizations either (1) adapt and respond to changing local needs and conditions or (2) predict where interventions should be targeted to have the most impact and minimize further damage to families and the community. 


We propose to explore the patterns of both rate and length of time of foreclosures in Kent County, using Survival Analysis (along with other statistical methods).  Survival Analysis is an area of statistics that analyzes how long it takes for an event of interest to happen.  This is a novel approach in the analysis of residential foreclosures, and can provide new methods for detection of neighborhoods subject to these risks.  Further, the foreclosure of a property has negative impacts on many facets of a neighborhood, such as crime rates, value of surrounding properties, emigration of residents, etc. Knowledge of the neighborhood conditions and characteristics that are most predictive of the high failure rates and rapid paths to foreclosure and its negative impacts may be invaluable in tailoring and targeting policy and programmatic interventions where they are needed the most.

Faculty Mentor: Daniel Frobish, Statistics

Page last modified August 14, 2009