Current Business Trends: Slightly Better

July 02, 2009

Slightly improved is the latest word on the Greater Grand Rapids economy, according to a survey compiled by Brian Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University.

The Greater Grand Rapids survey was conducted the last two weeks of June. The index of new orders, which tracks business improvement, bounced to +26, up from +5. The product index reversed itself to +14, up from -21. The employment index came back to -4, a vast improvement from last month’s -37.

“Layoffs are subsiding and this has many wondering if it means the beginning of recovery,” said Long. “One month does not constitute a trend. The General Motors bankruptcy is just starting to unfold and the recovery of the Big Three is nowhere in sight.”

Long also said the news about automobile sales is still not good and auto parts suppliers continue to be the weakest group. He added that while housing prices have started showing signs of stabilization in some parts of the country, the worst is still not over for the Michigan housing markets.

The Institute for Supply Management, Greater Grand Rapids survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the Greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors, and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conduced by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.” An expanded version of this report and details of the methodology used to compile it are available at www.gvsu.edu/scblogistics.

 AUDIO: Brian Long says it's good to have some good news (audio clip). He says this is not necessarily a recovery (audio clip). Long contends we haven't begun to see the fallout from the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies (audio clip). He says while the housing market is better nationwide, that's not the case for Michigan (audio clip).

 




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