National survey shows mainline Protestants more Democratic than Republican

Date: June 9, 2008

The findings of a national survey, addressing religious beliefs, religious affiliation and religious behavior, addressed both the opportunities and obstacles the presidential candidates face with religious voters.
  
The Henry Institute National Survey on Religion and Public Life surveyed more than 3,000 people from April 8 to May 10. Kevin den Dulk, associate professor of political science at Grand Valley, was part of the research team, along with colleagues from Calvin College and Dominican University.
  
The survey focused on four religious groups: evangelical Protestants, mainline Protestants, Roman Catholics, and seculars. The survey shows, for the first time in nearly 70 years, mainline Protestants are more Democratic than Republican in their partisan identifications, about 46 percent Democratic to 37 percent Republican. Mainline Protestants make up about 20 percent of the American electorate.

“Mainliners (those associated with some of the oldest Protestant denominations in the U.S.) were a solid part of the Republican base for decades, but that began to erode as a response to increasing social conservatism in the GOP in the 1980s,” said den Dulk. “This election year might be the first time that shift in party loyalty results in a clear majority vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.”
  
Another key finding shows evangelical Protestants have replaced mainline Protestants as the religious tradition most strongly aligned with the Republican Party.
  
“Just as mainliners began to move away from the GOP, evangelicals began to flock to the Republican Party,” den Dulk said. “Most notable is that fact that, in the past few elections, more than 80 percent of the most traditional evangelicals have voted Republican — a percentage unheard of just a few decades ago. Indeed, a voter’s level of religious traditionalism has now become a key indicator of vote choice, regardless of one’s specific faith or denomination.”
  
The results of the survey were announced at a news conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., on June 9, which was carried live on C-Span. The survey was commissioned by the Paul B. Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics at Calvin College and was funded in part by the Lynne and Harry Bradley Foundation.